網頁

2012年3月6日 星期二

交易和成功風險管理的125條箴言 (4)

76‧ Worry about how much you can lose‧ Figure risk reward ratio ahead of trade‧ Strive for at least 3x potential profit vs‧ loss‧
要想到你能夠輸多少錢,交易前就想好風險回報比例。盡力做到可能的盈利要三倍於可能的虧損。
77‧ If it appears that lots of bulls are long , be nervous!
如果看上去有很多多頭在買,你就需要警惕起來。
78‧ If you have a good lead in the market and all the news seems too good to be true you’d better take profits‧
如果你在市場上領先一籌,而且所有的消息都好得難以置信,你最好是收回你的盈利,出市走人。
79‧ The news always follows the market‧
新聞總是尾隨市場之後。
80‧ There is only one side to the market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side‧
市場只有一種,不是牛市或熊市,而是正確之市。
81‧ A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game‧
如果有人想在這場遊戲裏生存,他必須相信自己和自己的判斷力。
82‧ It is the big swing that makes the big money for you‧ “It was never my wishing that made the big money for me‧ It was always my sitting tight‧” Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon‧ The market does not beat them‧ They beat themselves‧ You must have the courage of your convictions and the intelligent patience to sit tight‧
大浪潮為你創造大筆財富。“為我帶來大筆財富的從來就不是我的祈求。它從來都是因為我坐著不動。”能夠既正確又坐著不動的人是不多見的。市場打不敗他們,打敗他們的是他們自己。一定要有堅韌的勇氣和智慧的耐心,你才做得到坐著不動。
83‧ To buy on a rising market is a most comfortable way of buying‧ Buy on a scale up‧ Sell on a scale down‧
最不讓人擔心的買進方法是在一個上升的市場裏買進。買高賣低。
84‧ Commodities are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling‧ But after the initial transaction, don’t make a second unless the first shows a profit‧
商品沒有高到不該再買的時候,也沒有低到不該再賣的時候。不過,在最初的轉手後,除非第一手交易獲利了,不要再做第二手。
85‧ Realize that the big money comes in the big swing‧ Whatever might seem to give a big swing, its initial impulse, the fact is that no matter who opposes it, the swing must inevitably run as far and as fast and as long as the impelling forces determine‧
要意識到大筆錢來自大浪潮。無論什麼是看上去會掀起大浪潮的,它最初的鼓動,事實是,不管是誰對抗它,大浪潮都無可避免地必然按照推動它的力量所決定的速度,沖到推動它的力量所決定的遠處。
86‧ In the long run, commodity prices are governed but by one law , the economic law of demand and supply‧
從長遠來看,決定商品價格的只有一條法則,供與求的經濟法則。
87‧ A loss never bothers me after I take it‧ I forget it overnight‧ But being wrong and not taking the loss , that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul‧
當我接受了一手輸了的交易,我就不再為它煩惱。隔了一夜我就忘了。但是,如果我做得不對,不肯接受我輸了的事實,這才會既對記賬本也對心靈造成損害。
88‧ It is profitable to study your mistakes‧
研究你的錯誤會給你帶來利潤。
89‧ Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss‧
在所有為投機而犯的愚蠢的錯誤裏,很少有比賣掉會賺錢、買進要賠錢的更愚蠢的了。
90‧ Nothing is new in commodities! The game does not change and neither does human nature‧
期貨交易裏沒有什麼新東西!遊戲沒有變;人性也沒有變。
91‧ In a bear market, it is always wise to cover if complete demoralization suddenly develops‧
在熊市裏,一旦突然全場士氣低落,你最好趕快平倉。
92‧ The principles of successful commodity speculation is based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the mistakes that they have made in the past‧
成功的期貨投機,其原理建立在這樣的假設上:人們在未來會重犯他們在過去犯過的錯誤。
93‧ In a bull market and particularly in booms, the public at first makes money, which it later looses simply by overstaying the bull market‧
在牛市裏,特別是在高峰的時候,公眾最初贏錢,然後就因為在牛市裏停留太長,而全輸了回去。
94‧ A bull market needs to be fed every day , a bear market only once a week‧
牛市需要每天為它提供給養;熊市只需要一個星期為它提供一次給養。
95‧ Never underestimate how much time is necessary to wash out a market that is long‧
不要過低估量需要多少時間清洗一個看多的市場。
96‧ Never buy the first rally and never sell the first break‧
不要在第一次回升時買進,也不要在第一次下跌時賣出。
97‧ Be advised that it is better to be more interested in the market’s reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself‧
最好是記住,與其對一則新聞本身感興趣,不如對市場對該則新消息的反應感興趣。
98‧ Don’t diversify , concentrate on a few commodities‧ More diversity reduces amount you can speculate with‧ Also too much to watch‧
不要撒芝麻在幾種商品上。分佈過散會減少你能用以投機的數量。況且要看管的太多。
99‧ Don’t pioneer highs or lows‧ Let the market tell you a high or low has been made‧
不要在高處或低處打衝鋒。讓市場告訴你什麼是新高或新低。

100‧ Keep some perspective‧ Trees don’t grow to the sky‧ values don’t go to zero‧ What are histories and recent highs and lows, Loan levels, Loans are not necessarily price floors‧ CCC selling prices aren’t necessarily price ceilings‧
持有你自己的觀點。樹木長不到天空那麼高,價值不會跌到等於零。貸款不一定就是價格的底部。商品信用公司(CCC)的銷售價不一定就是價格的頂部。